Thursday, September 21, 2006

Blind Man's Bluff

Sorry for what could be a politically incorrect title - but sometimes succinct is very valuable.

When you were a kid you may have played a game where one person was blindfolded and stood in the middle and had to guess who tagged them or touched them. Now that I think about it - this game is probably politically incorrect now too. At any rate the game was called Blind Man's Bluff.

I think many larger businesses are playing a game of Blind Man's Bluff everyday, trying to understand what firm will provide a new product or solution that takes away valuable market share or introduces a product that makes the existing product a "me too". There are two types of Blind Man's Bluff - the simple and the complex.

The simple one - and the one getting the most focus - is: which firm will introduce the next iteration that we have to overcome or copy? Who will produce the next incremental improvement that we have to match in our products, or explain away using adroit marketing? In this matter most firms aren't really playing Blind Man's Bluff - it's really a game of poker. Who's got the cards and who's bluffing?

Where Blind Man's Bluff really comes into play in most firms is the question: which company or band of garage dwellers will create a product or service that renders our main revenue stream obsolete? Most firms have some fairly significant blinders in that they take their key revenue streams for granted and assume that a challenger can be spotted from a long way off. What's most likely to disrupt your market is a dramatic change in something you think is immutable. Paid content becomes free content. Licensed software becomes open source. What blinders does your organization have based on its assumptions? I noted earlier that many firms think that they can spot challengers far out on the horizon. In some cases that's true, but many times challengers come from unexpected directions. I can remember reading a prediction a few years ago about "Free long distance calling" and how absurd most people thought that was. Today with Skype or other applications I can call people anywhere for free. What's ATT Long distance or Sprint Long Distance business plan now?

There are several reasons why most firms are playing Blind Man's Bluff with their future. One, they have blinders they don't recognize. It's hard to think about cannabalizing your own revenue streams, but you can bet there are other people thinking that way. Two, the infallability complex. If you are a leader, you tend to think you are smarter than those around you. Three, most firms tend to look in the wrong places and make the wrong assumptions about challengers. Four, assuming the market will stay the same in the future as it is today. Record companies fought the downloading of music and concepts like I-Tunes when they make a lot of sense to a consumer - why buy a whole record or CD when I really only want one or two tunes? Last, many firms don't do a good job of looking out at the future. We've trained them to think in quarterly increments. Long term thinking, innovation and strategy are costs that impact the bottom line every quarter, but don't necessarily add to the top line every quarter.

Blind Man's Bluff is a kid's game. Why do so many firms insist on playing?
AddThis Social Bookmark Button
posted by Jeffrey Phillips at 8:57 AM

13 Comments:

Anonymous Harga Jual Blackberry iPhone Laptop Murah said...

Harga Jual Blackberry iPhone Laptop Murah - Cheap long distance plans for phone calls are proving to be more and more important with the need for people to connect to each other across the world.

By:
Harga Jual Blackberry iPhone Laptop Murah

See my post:
Harga Jual Blackberry iPhone Laptop Murah

2:19 AM  
Anonymous Invertir en oro said...

Used. Case is a bit worn but contents in good condition.

9:39 AM  
Anonymous stop pre ejaculation said...

Thanks a lot for this time sharing of Innovation about 'Blind Man's Bluff'. This is really one of the best articles i have ever read.

8:32 PM  
Anonymous konsultan perusahaan said...

I think people fear idea management and innovation because there's a significant number of ideas that simply won't plan out.......Nice statement.....keep posting

10:33 PM  
Anonymous belajar internet marketing said...

this day I've been searching for information on various issues, this I found very good and I would like to congratulate you for your work.

10:33 PM  
Anonymous parcel lebaran said...

I think that this post is one of the best that i have read in my life, congrats you did a great job,.

10:33 PM  
Anonymous delayed orgasm said...

the difference between the content spammers and most corporate innovators is that the smaller

10:33 PM  
Anonymous how to avoid premature ejaculation said...

I'm writing to you because I just came across a business that I think has great potential. It lets you save money on almost everything. Make money from almost everything,

10:34 PM  
Anonymous konsultan seo said...

If growth is important to a firm, and if growth is dependent on offering existing products and services to new customers

10:34 PM  
Anonymous tabungan pendidikan said...

innovation is very natural and happens in the "real world" as new plants and animals colonize new ecological niches.

10:34 PM  
Anonymous mengecilkan perut said...

I wonder how you got so good. This is really a fascinating blog, lots of stuff that I can get into. One thing I just want to say is that your Blog is so perfect

10:34 PM  
Anonymous how to teach dogs tricks said...

We generally think most specifically about the risk associated with a new product introduction

10:34 PM  
Anonymous easy way to get pregnant said...

I would be aware that as somebody who really doesn’t comment to blogs a lot (in actual fact, this may be my first put up), I don’t think the time period “lurker” is very flattering to a non-posting reader.

10:35 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home